By Bill Downey

During the course of the year, it is always good to sit back and review the current markets you’re involved in.  In this manner, one would look at the performance not only from a percentage gain or loss basis, but in the field of seasonality as well.  In other words, if we are interested in the gold market, we want to see if it is following the typical script in price movement in relation to past years.  Keeping an eye on seasonality will alert you to when the best chance for highs and lows to occur during the year.  More important of an indicator that something might be going on is when a commodity does not perform like it usually does during its yearly cycle.  Movement that is uncommon can provide for opportunity in the form of rallies and/or corrections (uptrend’s and downtrends.)  When we see a commodity rally when it’s seasonally weak, we can ascertain potential underlying strength that has not yet been discounted by the market.  The same can be said if a commodity is weak during a time when it should be strong.  Keeping an eye on this gives one a good perspective of whether the market is strong, weak, or normal.

How has gold been performing so far this year, and over the past year?  Well so far this year, gold peaked in February, went lower into April, rallied in May and into the first week of June, and our largest correction year to date has brought us to the July timeframe.  As you can see in the seasonal chart below, gold is following the exact script it usually does in an average year.  Therefore, we can categorize gold as in a NORMAL trending fashion thus far this year. 

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You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down.
You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred.
You cannot build character and courage by taking away people's initiative and independence.
You cannot help people permanently by doing for them what they could or should do for themselves.

(Abraham Lincoln)

TOKYO, May 31, 2009 (AFP) - The man who hopes to be Japan's next finance minister envisions an Asia united by a single currency, saying the dollar may no longer reign supreme in future.

The opposition's "shadow finance minister" Masaharu Nakagawa also says he hopes to reshape the world's number two economy into a kinder, gentler place if his Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) wins elections this year.

"You can't invigorate society only through... the law of the jungle where the strong become stronger," he told AFP. "The same player would always win if there were no handicaps in golf."

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"If men through fear, fraud or mistake, should in terms renounce and give up any essential natural right, the eternal law of reason and the great end of society, would absolutely vacate such renunciation; the right to freedom being the gift of God Almighty, it is not in the power of Man to alienate this gift, and voluntarily become a slave."

--John Adams

"It is Religion and Morality alone, which can establish the Principles upon which Freedom can securely stand....The only foundation of a free Constitution, is pure Virtue, and if this cannot be inspired into our People, in a great Measure, than they have it now, They may change their Rulers, and the forms of Government, but they will not obtain a lasting Liberty."

--John Adams, letter to Zabdiel Adams, 21 June 1776

"The God who gave us life, gave us liberty at the same time."

--Thomas Jefferson

On 6 May 1982, Ronald Reagan offered these words:

"Today, prayer is still a powerful force in America, and our faith in God is a mighty source of strength. Our Pledge of Allegiance states that we are 'one nation under God,' and our currency bears the motto, 'In God We Trust.' The morality and values such faith implies are deeply embedded in our national character. Our country embraces those principles by design, and we abandon them at our peril. Yet in recent years, well-meaning Americans in the name of freedom have taken freedom away. For the sake of religious tolerance, they've forbidden religious practice in the classrooms. The law of this land has effectively removed prayer from our classrooms. How can we hope to retain our freedom through the generations if we fail to teach our young that our liberty springs from an abiding faith in our Creator?"

"Now, where do some of these attacks originate? They're coming from the very people whose past policies, all done in the name of compassion, brought us the current recession. Their policies drove up inflation and interest rates, and their policies stifled incentive, creativity and halted the movement of the poor up the economic ladder. Some of their criticism is perfectly sincere. But let's also understand that some of their criticism comes from those who have a vested interest in a permanent welfare constituency and in government programs that reinforce the dependency of our people. Well, I would suggest that no one should have a vested interest in poverty or dependency, that these tragedies must never be looked at as a source of votes for politicians or paychecks for bureaucrats. They are blights on our society that we must work to eliminate, not institutionalize."

--Ronald Reagan